tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100049772024-03-27T22:35:41.430-04:00Calculated RiskFinance and EconomicsCalculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.comBlogger32511125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-13912860626430605292024-03-27T19:41:00.001-04:002024-03-27T19:41:00.143-04:00Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmpedqyIaXng8_11qxKAjPhb-Vh9LMabI5J7NoB6BEtyUHe3BlTg0Alhnq6ca2ya1dyOI5vh84mAXGmt-4eshyphenhyphenp5jClGlLM1-xX2B0adU7fSwsLjqEHC-4-KXcxuxpljJIPd7K3r8nvHRx1-i1oHLOQQfXizImk8XYlagr1aP_cqeUKoVku-em/s395/RatesMar272024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmpedqyIaXng8_11qxKAjPhb-Vh9LMabI5J7NoB6BEtyUHe3BlTg0Alhnq6ca2ya1dyOI5vh84mAXGmt-4eshyphenhyphenp5jClGlLM1-xX2B0adU7fSwsLjqEHC-4-KXcxuxpljJIPd7K3r8nvHRx1-i1oHLOQQfXizImk8XYlagr1aP_cqeUKoVku-em/s320/RatesMar272024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Thursday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, <b>Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2023 (Third Estimate)</b>, GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the second estimate.<br />
<br />
• Also at 8:30 AM, The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released. The consensus is for 208 thousand initial claims, down from 210 thousand last week.<br />
<br />
• At 9:45 AM, <b>Chicago Purchasing Managers Index</b> for March. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, down from 44.0 in February.<br />
<br />
• At 10:00 AM, <b>Pending Home Sales Index</b> for February. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.<br />
<br />
• Also at 10:00 AM, <b>University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index</b> (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 76.5.<br />
<br />
• At 11:00 AM, the <b>Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey</b> for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March. Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-77610489743439199522024-03-27T16:59:00.001-04:002024-03-27T16:59:15.039-04:00Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased, Multi-family Decreased in FebruaryToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-5fc">Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased, Multi-family Decreased in February</a><br />
<br />Brief excerpt: <blockquote>Single-family serious delinquencies decreased in February, and <b>multi-family serious delinquencies decreased after the huge surge in January</b>.<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheUvZYpy7dXBHoYo_F_aEdeGAhPIvHwufAejNzLmUAdArhW7ymbl6ZjP0bAovUH2VX5NPtgGElA_bii3P8Sk4GK4v3xoIdVdzl-H0XD1OYGFQ4t1w0rY4it_bTyDe1qQWX0L2XQmcTYMtTukZP46_D5LcpyO795V__55XnGu5EVt0eeuEkXeCL/s945/FreddieMultiFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Freddie Multi-Family Seriously Delinquent Rate" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheUvZYpy7dXBHoYo_F_aEdeGAhPIvHwufAejNzLmUAdArhW7ymbl6ZjP0bAovUH2VX5NPtgGElA_bii3P8Sk4GK4v3xoIdVdzl-H0XD1OYGFQ4t1w0rY4it_bTyDe1qQWX0L2XQmcTYMtTukZP46_D5LcpyO795V__55XnGu5EVt0eeuEkXeCL/s320/FreddieMultiFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Freddie Mac reports that the multi-family delinquencies rate declined to 0.35% in February, and down from 0.44% in January.<br />
<br />
This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012. Rates were still high in 2012 following the housing bust and financial crisis.<br />
<br />
The multi-family rate increased following the pandemic and has increased recently as rent growth has slowed, vacancy rates have increased, and borrowing rates have increased sharply. The rate surged higher in January but declined in February but is still at a high level. This will be something to watch as more apartments come on the market.</blockquote><div>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center></div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-6674915160457225232024-03-27T13:12:00.001-04:002024-03-27T13:12:00.244-04:00Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 49 States in January (3-Month Basis)From the <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/coincident/2024/coincidentindexes0124.pdf">Philly Fed</a>: <br />
<blockquote>
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2024. Over the
past three months, <b>the indexes increased in 49 states</b> and decreased in one state, for a three-month diffusion index of 96.
Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in seven states, and remained stable in four, for
a one-month diffusion index of 64. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident
index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.6 percent over the past three months and
0.2 percent in January.
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed: <br />
<blockquote>
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.</blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU0JSE_HEr5yrZnHs7SFA8yvY2Mo9Uhf74aLptlKXb0-20QNUnqHzdrayc3zqLkhJ0TQjaRX8wDHs4IzLEDjNPL1SZ5mZFxC1cLDknni-MbZ9RQyp41Qpx1lt8SLemLvP-KLZYUzqWeSqpBF606vZ-kkCVdVRJRDcHxrXYSA-rxs5ajs5HqHru/s790/PhillyMapJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Philly Fed State Conincident Map" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU0JSE_HEr5yrZnHs7SFA8yvY2Mo9Uhf74aLptlKXb0-20QNUnqHzdrayc3zqLkhJ0TQjaRX8wDHs4IzLEDjNPL1SZ5mZFxC1cLDknni-MbZ9RQyp41Qpx1lt8SLemLvP-KLZYUzqWeSqpBF606vZ-kkCVdVRJRDcHxrXYSA-rxs5ajs5HqHru/s320/PhillyMapJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>
<i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on map for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/coincident/maps/2020/2020-04.png">map was all red</a> during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.<br />
<br />
The map is almost all positive on a three-month basis.<br />
<br />
Source: Philly Fed. <br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsb4OAmzxtOSpAN3IMWjO7Vr3noGusBI5G55YcCKufcWW6K4-BNjuq19ONP5gQJX0LPoqz2X-eX_C-BUkPaqwAmByWrvUkPJlUQOOjnc_PO3y-s9Nb-LyjYl1frF0v_FhiLOGsr67MkZURfkDoyOOm7VZWmxTSzJdv1QpWVbzBBa2q0ed2Maeb/s1024/PhillyFedJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing Activity" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsb4OAmzxtOSpAN3IMWjO7Vr3noGusBI5G55YcCKufcWW6K4-BNjuq19ONP5gQJX0LPoqz2X-eX_C-BUkPaqwAmByWrvUkPJlUQOOjnc_PO3y-s9Nb-LyjYl1frF0v_FhiLOGsr67MkZURfkDoyOOm7VZWmxTSzJdv1QpWVbzBBa2q0ed2Maeb/s320/PhillyFedJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. <div><br /></div><div>This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).<br />
<br />In January, 41 states had increasing activity including minor increases.</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-73198789950062802152024-03-27T09:41:00.001-04:002024-03-27T09:41:40.113-04:00Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peakToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-24-bab">Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak</a><br />
<br />
Excerpt: <blockquote>It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-939">January Case-Shiller house price index</a> released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 71% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% above the bubble peak.<br />
<br />
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $427,000 today adjusted for inflation (42% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.<br />
<br />
<b>The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index.</b> The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4ahqQNEsue1q0fe4tKSGQkBiPVMkx22eYmrwWPPBb7sqL4nhQQiNV5_zd5DEQbu67jFxsblVS4hFFEK1rEh3SdRpLcPfHjJywD3jcxbNYhLLC6nn5ux-DrgzVYQsXW3ZaTG2ug4wHby7rkvjLxs8GkMxLmfTMC1I_SsDY3CrFYryQSi-F9ZX/s940/RealDec2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Rea; House Prices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4ahqQNEsue1q0fe4tKSGQkBiPVMkx22eYmrwWPPBb7sqL4nhQQiNV5_zd5DEQbu67jFxsblVS4hFFEK1rEh3SdRpLcPfHjJywD3jcxbNYhLLC6nn5ux-DrgzVYQsXW3ZaTG2ug4wHby7rkvjLxs8GkMxLmfTMC1I_SsDY3CrFYryQSi-F9ZX/s320/RealDec2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" width="300" /></a>The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).<br />
<br />
<b>In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.4% below the recent peak</b>, and the Composite 20 index is 3.3% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes were mostly flat in January in real terms.<br />
<br />In real terms, national house prices are 10.2% above the bubble peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 17 years since the previous peak, but real prices are historically high.</blockquote><div>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-72953715897948857432024-03-27T07:00:00.010-04:002024-03-27T07:00:00.142-04:00MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly SurveyFrom the MBA: <a href="https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom">Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey</a><blockquote>Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one
week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024.<br />
<br />
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on
a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.4
percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous
week and was 9 percent lower than the same week one year ago. <b>The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier.</b> The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2
percent compared with the previous week and was <b>16 percent lower than the same week one year ago</b>.<br />
<br />
“Mortgage application activity was muted last week despite slightly lower mortgage rates. The 30-year
fixed rate edged lower to 6.93 percent, but that was not enough to stimulate borrower demand,” said Joel
Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications were essentially
unchanged, as homebuyers continue to hold out for lower mortgage rates and for more listings to hit the
market. Lower rates should help to free up additional inventory as the lock-in effect is reduced, but we
expect that will only take place gradually, as we forecast that rates will move toward 6-percent by the end
of the year. Similarly, with rates remaining elevated, there is very little incentive right now for rate/term
refinances.” <br />
...<br />
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.93 percent from 6.97 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.64
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. <br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg01-s3hqNT5UiEV6wlO_T5jfeNVdkTaTJiGHHlXPyhX8j3Jfmte6Bo3N4cZNH2oN5Y6pBsKSeL-WZ3tEac1pIDZC90d6b9Rusii5whYe1WL8F0Loapy9KJqO0y74x93MUOkBuv9oLroqsEWyo_PoloyChyQGiggtO4DLCKFm5TPreQKAMbkFFL/s1085/MBAMar272024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Purchase Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg01-s3hqNT5UiEV6wlO_T5jfeNVdkTaTJiGHHlXPyhX8j3Jfmte6Bo3N4cZNH2oN5Y6pBsKSeL-WZ3tEac1pIDZC90d6b9Rusii5whYe1WL8F0Loapy9KJqO0y74x93MUOkBuv9oLroqsEWyo_PoloyChyQGiggtO4DLCKFm5TPreQKAMbkFFL/s320/MBAMar272024.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.<br />
<br />
According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 16% year-over-year unadjusted. <div><b><br /></b></div><div>Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). </div><div><br /></div><div>Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. <b><br /></b><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr16h2tkvBeCm5Az4_zwohC1h8JvCLOXODtphECFt-w3ut87h6IlxjQe33sQelwC4Omtkp317sHvL5Yq7qFlLXrhe2kE9z_EeKXq3ZEAP3ORMCu5d2aoCWY1-BhMWzWxHk4zfPv9N3ahLLn4qYHeR9JHKA69r90z9mMD57yADXaKywPVORJqUR/s1081/MBARefiMar272024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Mortgage Refinance Index" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr16h2tkvBeCm5Az4_zwohC1h8JvCLOXODtphECFt-w3ut87h6IlxjQe33sQelwC4Omtkp317sHvL5Yq7qFlLXrhe2kE9z_EeKXq3ZEAP3ORMCu5d2aoCWY1-BhMWzWxHk4zfPv9N3ahLLn4qYHeR9JHKA69r90z9mMD57yADXaKywPVORJqUR/s320/MBARefiMar272024.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><div>The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.<br />
<br /><div>With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.</div></div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-11583077748422378612024-03-26T19:42:00.006-04:002024-03-26T19:42:00.144-04:00Wednesday: Mortgage Applications<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZlgxVsh9hrjjrSz2D5lo5YGun6NfIjWdetcE5dPbNUjltJI5bFaGNUTzPJgEKpQ6kQFdAqj1PAVZHRYh-HJ2YoKryYlRW8HauSDmZ5_2plQ60WH7apbZPIBWf_HbzfvlP29aAVH2ERVUqXEqgb5Rof-kyIsLf2_rx21oKI6ksY1SfeTB3Hhus/s390/RatesMar262024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZlgxVsh9hrjjrSz2D5lo5YGun6NfIjWdetcE5dPbNUjltJI5bFaGNUTzPJgEKpQ6kQFdAqj1PAVZHRYh-HJ2YoKryYlRW8HauSDmZ5_2plQ60WH7apbZPIBWf_HbzfvlP29aAVH2ERVUqXEqgb5Rof-kyIsLf2_rx21oKI6ksY1SfeTB3Hhus/s320/RatesMar262024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
Wednesday:<br />
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-59473155013576187802024-03-26T13:00:00.014-04:002024-03-26T13:00:00.141-04:00A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House PricesTwo key points:<br />
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.<br />
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern. This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.<br /><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFGopv6UizJ8yTkRZcSat7C8EZTLqUtUEifK54_pDpqgWzo0mz0vfKCLWJrW8gH9v9ZtLnZm77Xboag0KSDWNSBOR9kTcAandhQ9ofIIbGyQi7KzEOg72gFs56LyWHPzi1mfLiYKGO-Ju-0mJv1BFmf2tVgdKcVEYEcV5XHx9bMSZlZ7eavZms/s879/CSSFMoMJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="House Prices month-to-month change NSA" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFGopv6UizJ8yTkRZcSat7C8EZTLqUtUEifK54_pDpqgWzo0mz0vfKCLWJrW8gH9v9ZtLnZm77Xboag0KSDWNSBOR9kTcAandhQ9ofIIbGyQi7KzEOg72gFs56LyWHPzi1mfLiYKGO-Ju-0mJv1BFmf2tVgdKcVEYEcV5XHx9bMSZlZ7eavZms/s320/CSSFMoMJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>
<i><b><span style="font-size: small;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through January 2024). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst. <br />
<br />
The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhydjUZgA_VSQovQFLTFRNf8k9_uiiCs2edr5NNNcMPgOepRK-R5924onvqXvF-CjkYOyoGEIJJB75DuuQRlw1kvXJ6eorMT4o89G-AaLpNkbY0vt6ja6DoVuW_yJldxz35Hx-AK-DzLe4pmq-360GaUk05IJ_OgWlOLY07cqwS5ngIc51HxlRe/s869/CSSFJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case Shiller Seasonal Factors" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhydjUZgA_VSQovQFLTFRNf8k9_uiiCs2edr5NNNcMPgOepRK-R5924onvqXvF-CjkYOyoGEIJJB75DuuQRlw1kvXJ6eorMT4o89G-AaLpNkbY0vt6ja6DoVuW_yJldxz35Hx-AK-DzLe4pmq-360GaUk05IJ_OgWlOLY07cqwS5ngIc51HxlRe/s320/CSSFJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year. <div>
<br />
The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.</div><div><br /></div><div>Using the 2018 and 2019 seasonal factors, the Seasonally Adjusted Case-Shiller index would have declined slightly in January instead of increasing 0.4% month-over-month.</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-87420835981046893852024-03-26T09:51:00.000-04:002024-03-26T09:51:58.423-04:00Comments on January House Prices, FHFA: House Prices Declined Slightly in JanuaryToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-939">Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.0% year-over-year in January; FHFA: House Prices Declined Slightly in January, up 6.3% YoY</a><br />
<br />
Excerpt: <blockquote>S&P/Case-Shiller <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview">released</a> the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in September, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPGng3UrmUXnrUsQzJf5a0MLzpeNmWvZsyw7PTeqnnYjEow-Z_xYjNV_XsZ3MaUMD9zvrjoXFNRphm31BFdZjkoAgdZgMd2udx16tIHdo3zYkvgh4kwIn9M8JDiq_SX1DqfQ_Wn3s7faIpT9JoO-1M6kdWoGljS3DO2ppeAi8Gz7EGg2YpVgF/s921/CSMoMJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller MoM House Prices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPGng3UrmUXnrUsQzJf5a0MLzpeNmWvZsyw7PTeqnnYjEow-Z_xYjNV_XsZ3MaUMD9zvrjoXFNRphm31BFdZjkoAgdZgMd2udx16tIHdo3zYkvgh4kwIn9M8JDiq_SX1DqfQ_Wn3s7faIpT9JoO-1M6kdWoGljS3DO2ppeAi8Gz7EGg2YpVgF/s320/CSMoMJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.36%. This was the twelfth consecutive MoM increase, and a larger MoM increase than the previous two months.<br />
<br />
On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 13 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. <b>Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.4% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 7.1% from the peak, Portland down 4.8%, and Phoenix is down 3.6%.</b></blockquote><div>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center></div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-37838877639448131722024-03-26T09:00:00.041-04:002024-03-26T09:10:39.273-04:00Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.0% year-over-year in JanuaryS&P/Case-Shiller <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview">released</a> the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices).<br />
<br />
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.<br />
<br />
From S&P <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20240326-1471289/1471289_cshomeprice-release-0326.pdf">S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in January 2024</a> <blockquote>The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, <b>reported a 6.0% annual gain in January</b>, up from a 5.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-
City Composite showed an increase of 7.4%, up from a 7.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-
City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, up from a 6.2% increase in the previous
month. San Diego again reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.2%
increase in January, followed by Los Angeles, with an increase of 8.6%. Portland, though holding the
lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth, retained an upward trend with a 0.9%
increase this month.<br />
...<br />
The U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite showed a continued decrease of 0.1%, and 10-City
Composite remained unchanged in January.<br />
<br />
<b>After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite
all posted month-over-month increases of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.2% respectively</b>.<br />
<br />
“U.S. home prices continued their drive higher,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real &
Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest
annual rate since 2022. Stronger gains came from our 10- and 20-City Composite indices, rising 7.4%
and 6.6%, respectively. For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual
prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%. On a seasonal adjusted basis, home prices have continued to
break through previous all-time highs set last year”<br />
<i>emphasis added</i></blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMK2KbGT0wtv1YGlEsb7U2j3vjGa797PlUpY6UnSp9f2Yv1FK6toq3VcNAiMtNC7WOAS1IRtVjMhDVZJv-Ka16qyjISzpSkmeFbQ2Ooz7uiTqFapNUpHTvCNh8WUCsVOe3KJUFi5CxpOX_IQ5WB4sXBR-8N3rgTjLxd7lK-JvoaUQh8HEPvOJS/s1025/CSJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller House Prices Indices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMK2KbGT0wtv1YGlEsb7U2j3vjGa797PlUpY6UnSp9f2Yv1FK6toq3VcNAiMtNC7WOAS1IRtVjMhDVZJv-Ka16qyjISzpSkmeFbQ2Ooz7uiTqFapNUpHTvCNh8WUCsVOe3KJUFi5CxpOX_IQ5WB4sXBR-8N3rgTjLxd7lK-JvoaUQh8HEPvOJS/s320/CSJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i> <br />
<br />
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).<br />
<br />
The Composite 10 index is up 0.2% in January (SA). The Composite 20 index is up 0.1% (SA) in January.<br />
<br />
The National index is up 0.4% (SA) in January.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6i95yzbFVqTc0IoI3vw-gTO65UteJfJ-U2_lLHGHamJm8jsLlv5Bldk7T-Rvum3BrqhGKYKuYLLv1v2IrxW0n1_JEjiCOUcFRNxqMCAaIfIxlCuYeC2CmIc_3J0j1O0bzVt9373BuNSE4cE6gj7YLwylo9JTjWI3nRAkEo9ZowOearKFBxDl2/s1017/CSYoYJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller House Prices Indices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6i95yzbFVqTc0IoI3vw-gTO65UteJfJ-U2_lLHGHamJm8jsLlv5Bldk7T-Rvum3BrqhGKYKuYLLv1v2IrxW0n1_JEjiCOUcFRNxqMCAaIfIxlCuYeC2CmIc_3J0j1O0bzVt9373BuNSE4cE6gj7YLwylo9JTjWI3nRAkEo9ZowOearKFBxDl2/s320/CSYoYJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.<br />
<br />
The Composite 10 SA is up 7.4% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA is up 6.6% year-over-year.<br />
<br />
The National index SA is up 6.0% year-over-year.<br />
<br />Annual price changes were at expectations. I'll have more later.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-39292288175748049912024-03-25T19:37:00.011-04:002024-03-25T19:37:00.131-04:00Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Durable Goods, Richmond and Dallas Fed Mfg<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1sjZUTVjdJob1wyOHZ9sCl-f4jsEKtoz4_zlp8TOjstiFsZMJiLEBNGOreRCCHltZSikrIeguaE0O29w8f7mNrRJ-qun1DKwLiXhW2uCzkSuIAYF96vDNH21xSJ99jkN5yVT1k4tByt6BWfn5f37iwqzy4HqIPMyevoW3z68of1KBFqtfBHZp/s394/RatesMar252024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1sjZUTVjdJob1wyOHZ9sCl-f4jsEKtoz4_zlp8TOjstiFsZMJiLEBNGOreRCCHltZSikrIeguaE0O29w8f7mNrRJ-qun1DKwLiXhW2uCzkSuIAYF96vDNH21xSJ99jkN5yVT1k4tByt6BWfn5f37iwqzy4HqIPMyevoW3z68of1KBFqtfBHZp/s320/RatesMar252024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /> </a>From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03252024">Mortgage Rates Basically Unchanged Over The Weekend</a><blockquote>Mortgage rates enjoyed a decently strong week last week, with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate moving down to 6.91% by Friday from 7.09% on the previous Friday. To put today's "unchanged" headline in perspective, that same number is up to 6.92% this afternoon. [<b><a href="http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/">30 year fixed 6.92%</a></b>]<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
Tuesday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, <b>Durable Goods Orders</b> for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in durable goods orders.<br />
<br />
• At 9:00 AM, <b>S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index</b> for January. The consensus is for a 5.8% year-over-year increase in the National index for January, up from 5.5% YoY in December.<br />
<br />
• Also at 9:00 AM, <b>FHFA House Price Index</b> for January 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.<br />
<br />
• At 10:00 AM, <b>Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity</b> for March.<br />
<br />
• At 10:30 AM, <b>Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity</b> for March. Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-47836520317511381112024-03-25T13:47:00.000-04:002024-03-25T13:47:00.131-04:00March Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.6 million SAAR, Up 5% YoYFrom WardsAuto: <a href="https://wardsintelligence.informa.com/wi967739/march-us-lightvehicle-sales-tracking-a-steady-course-with-potential-upside">March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking a Steady Course with Potential Upside</a> (pay content). Brief excerpt:<blockquote>If the March forecast holds firm, the first quarter will total a 15.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, down from Q4-2023’s 15.7 million but up from like-2023’s 15.0 million. However, the forecasted steady climb in inventory should put sales in good stead to rise above 16-million-unit annualized rates for most of the remainder of 2024.<br /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>
emphasis added</i></span></blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ny18c7aqj3fKpdlNntIEojDDeaeUWe6GguQt19h-k7uz63I6fKvnMFccyGcY0ABuvUUvJkkk4rVUqzJd-_kfpcYvTrfXm6P2J-bWUjit3qGwI6OBZV7VzllJGn9_t18-i6PP14IFJui2NcZm4m6ihRS0UCbucHv6S4JcGuo0eUoKLHCT_CFY/s969/VSForecastMar2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Vehicle Sales Forecast" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_ny18c7aqj3fKpdlNntIEojDDeaeUWe6GguQt19h-k7uz63I6fKvnMFccyGcY0ABuvUUvJkkk4rVUqzJd-_kfpcYvTrfXm6P2J-bWUjit3qGwI6OBZV7VzllJGn9_t18-i6PP14IFJui2NcZm4m6ihRS0UCbucHv6S4JcGuo0eUoKLHCT_CFY/s320/VSForecastMar2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for March (Red).<br />
<br />
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.6 million SAAR, would be down 1% from last month, and up 5% from a year ago. Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-52753604330278703792024-03-25T10:43:00.001-04:002024-03-25T10:43:54.482-04:00New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in February; Median New Home Price is Down 19% from the PeakToday, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-at-662000-annual-rate">New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in February</a><br />
<br />Brief excerpt: <blockquote>The Census Bureau <a href="http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf">reports</a> New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand. The previous three months were revised up slightly.<br />
...<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAKrddUf0Edax03MRxtaLlBGCsNkUqTDNJXKlUkdIUUHAEZ5bMYRhwkYpudPUARhRqchcPDj_LYTy42lLLf7RbIoKyMO0Mfot0cMz91MdOnfVFVSRN6vZV5DxVAK8_DcmTv6ReWpLUxwAjHHsYEQtsJedGsdZ32KzPENOhq8AAUBQWLjUWJXtE/s946/NHS20232024Feb.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="New Home Sales 2023 2024" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAKrddUf0Edax03MRxtaLlBGCsNkUqTDNJXKlUkdIUUHAEZ5bMYRhwkYpudPUARhRqchcPDj_LYTy42lLLf7RbIoKyMO0Mfot0cMz91MdOnfVFVSRN6vZV5DxVAK8_DcmTv6ReWpLUxwAjHHsYEQtsJedGsdZ32KzPENOhq8AAUBQWLjUWJXtE/s320/NHS20232024Feb.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in February 2024 were up 5.9% from February 2023.<br />
...<br />
Note that the median and average price are down due to the mix of homes sold, not because of large price declines. <b>Homebuilders are building less expensive homes to keep up volumes.</b></blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-12826313424038626172024-03-25T10:00:00.030-04:002024-03-25T10:09:09.328-04:00New Home Sales at 662,000 Annual Rate in FebruaryThe Census Bureau <a href="http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf">reports</a> New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 662 thousand.<br />
<br />
The previous three months were revised up slightly.<br />
<blockquote>
Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were at a <b>seasonally adjusted annual rate of 662,000</b>, according
to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban
Development. This is 0.3 percent below the revised January rate of 664,000, but is 5.9 percent above the February 2023 estimate of 625,000.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGEg6KEIoHryJzZ_Ptay0Ngb1v2Yrp5soh7iayGAZzw-aUXov3m7rwaOwWPzvAgMnYp4QyOFGzIBMWsF6zmULwF7xu8Ubzh_cwicvMG2buWIUGdgEJLt8OPns2JTVthS6CDHukYwKAyyX599SyPLTCzLU4XlCmeqWMt5z7cCsZt_KmIwfbVehI/s1076/NHSFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="New Home Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGEg6KEIoHryJzZ_Ptay0Ngb1v2Yrp5soh7iayGAZzw-aUXov3m7rwaOwWPzvAgMnYp4QyOFGzIBMWsF6zmULwF7xu8Ubzh_cwicvMG2buWIUGdgEJLt8OPns2JTVthS6CDHukYwKAyyX599SyPLTCzLU4XlCmeqWMt5z7cCsZt_KmIwfbVehI/s320/NHSFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.<br />
<br />New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.<br />
<br />
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZJS72SOFLgkt2qZn5Kmd7EaTKzYbkr95KR2yKgNfHllp7JDSwxz1L8HxeXP-DETOZ8cN9-_cMS100n5pV6pOl7Awx_0YdkDT5Jm51HN-ppofeD7b_k726sEhVZY0XW4HSTtNvfphfDi5tDBEvwHOqncx4FqwaKeSllihNQlJbG2PuDmjTNcPL/s1024/NHSMonthsFeb2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="New Home Sales, Months of Supply" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZJS72SOFLgkt2qZn5Kmd7EaTKzYbkr95KR2yKgNfHllp7JDSwxz1L8HxeXP-DETOZ8cN9-_cMS100n5pV6pOl7Awx_0YdkDT5Jm51HN-ppofeD7b_k726sEhVZY0XW4HSTtNvfphfDi5tDBEvwHOqncx4FqwaKeSllihNQlJbG2PuDmjTNcPL/s320/NHSMonthsFeb2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>The months of supply increased in February to 8.4 months from 8.3 months in January. <br />
<br />
The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.<br />
<br />
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).<br />
<blockquote>
<i>"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate."</i></blockquote>
Sales were below expectations of 673 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised up slightly. I'll have more later today.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-61621202635144837682024-03-25T08:16:00.024-04:002024-03-25T08:16:00.142-04:00Housing March 25th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 23.9% Year-over-year<div>Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. <b>Inventory bottomed in mid-February, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, </b>and inventory is now up 3.8% from the 2024 February bottom.</div><div><div>
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZQq9id_ufZBaHc48tNCn4OyEIvP5hbocltzLltySBH90S5JkKattHykffZqD05ukLp3aC0OXCv2ZW8O-N7mwdaUZcyygN04pirWA0Mu52WdpmwADzuuYQgIrkcU0QuWZJrCG312RWuiL-tpaCQ2lrf4_MdCJzcs38WI_N7rCsvJmixSSNfFfJ/s1172/AltosMar252024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Altos Home Inventory" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZQq9id_ufZBaHc48tNCn4OyEIvP5hbocltzLltySBH90S5JkKattHykffZqD05ukLp3aC0OXCv2ZW8O-N7mwdaUZcyygN04pirWA0Mu52WdpmwADzuuYQgIrkcU0QuWZJrCG312RWuiL-tpaCQ2lrf4_MdCJzcs38WI_N7rCsvJmixSSNfFfJ/s320/AltosMar252024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a> <i><b><span style="font-size: 78%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br /><br />
This inventory graph is courtesy of <a href="https://altosresearch.com/">Altos Research</a>.<div><br /></div><div>
As of March 22nd, inventory was at 513 thousand (7-day average), compared to 507 thousand the prior week. </div><div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. </div><div><br /></div>The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZtsUC6x6PAPPtkubxWbI4S7cWSGG0tUPL0KbAj0yX3mBsKbX7pKFTpoTmr39rscHjBRobsLbpqLP9jkEgeucIyVI82TiY5odqZuSIhNcapQ6uWVEyB0UUFUJOKgVHWjVKI6efGoplu8wyQVqCOEUOj9rCA-SuOQ_DwF7HZX43HKKUXaYhZx2l/s1089/AltosYoYMar252024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Altos Year-over-year Home Inventory" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZtsUC6x6PAPPtkubxWbI4S7cWSGG0tUPL0KbAj0yX3mBsKbX7pKFTpoTmr39rscHjBRobsLbpqLP9jkEgeucIyVI82TiY5odqZuSIhNcapQ6uWVEyB0UUFUJOKgVHWjVKI6efGoplu8wyQVqCOEUOj9rCA-SuOQ_DwF7HZX43HKKUXaYhZx2l/s320/AltosYoYMar252024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><br /></div><div>The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. <b>Note that inventory is up more than double from the record low for the same week in 2022</b>, but still well below normal levels.</div><div><br /></div><div>Inventory was up 23.9% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 22.2%), and down 38.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 38.5%). </div><div><br /></div><div>Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.</div><div><br /></div><div>Mike Simonsen discusses this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/altosresearch">data regularly on Youtube</a>.</div></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-89996286060465542822024-03-24T19:24:00.001-04:002024-03-24T19:24:15.792-04:00Monday: New Home SalesWeekend:<br />
• <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/schedule-for-week-of-march-24-2024.html">Schedule for Week of March 24, 2024</a><br />
<br />
Monday:<br />
• At 8:30 AM ET, <b>Chicago Fed National Activity Index</b> for February. This is a composite index of other data.<br />
<br />
• At 10:00 AM, <b>New Home Sales</b> for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 673 thousand SAAR, up from 661 thousand in January.<br />
<br />
From CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/">Pre-Market Data</a> and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/">Bloomberg futures</a> S&P 500 are down 4 and DOW futures are down 47 (fair value).<br />
<br />
Oil prices were down over the last week with <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/">WTI futures</a> at $80.63 per barrel and Brent at $85.43 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are up 17% year-over-year. <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.gasbuddy.com/Charts">Here is a graph</a> from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.53 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.41 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.12 year-over-year.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-24178981923301614172024-03-24T08:21:00.001-04:002024-03-24T08:21:00.167-04:00Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the ConsensusHousing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for almost 14 years. He has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog. <br />
<br />
The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales. Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but <b>usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer</b>.<div><br /></div><div>For example, last week, for February 2024, the NAR reported sales of 4.38 million SAAR, and <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/california-february-existing-home">Tom Lawler had estimated</a> they would report sales of 4.40 million (almost exact). Meanwhile, the consensus was way too low at 3.94 million SAAR.</div><div><br /></div><div>Over the last 14 years, the consensus average miss was 141 thousand (median 110 thousand), and Lawler's average miss was 72 thousand (median 60 thousand).</div><div>
<br />
<center>
<table align="center" border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 620px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="4">Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report<br />
millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)</th></tr>
<tr><th>Month</th><th>Consensus</th><th>Lawler</th><th>NAR reported<sup>1</sup></th></tr>
<tr><td>May-10</td><td align="center">6.20</td><td align="center">5.83</td><td align="center">5.66</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-10</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.37</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-10</td><td align="center">4.66</td><td align="center">3.95</td><td align="center">3.83</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-10</td><td align="center">4.10</td><td align="center">4.10</td><td align="center">4.13</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-10</td><td align="center">4.30</td><td align="center">4.50</td><td align="center">4.53</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-10</td><td align="center">4.50</td><td align="center">4.46</td><td align="center">4.43</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-10</td><td align="center">4.85</td><td align="center">4.61</td><td align="center">4.68</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-10</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">5.13</td><td align="center">5.28</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-11</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.17</td><td align="center">5.36</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-11</td><td align="center">5.15</td><td align="center">5.00</td><td align="center">4.88</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-11</td><td align="center">5.00</td><td align="center">5.08</td><td align="center">5.10</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-11</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.15</td><td align="center">5.05</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-11</td><td align="center">4.75</td><td align="center">4.80</td><td align="center">4.81</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-11</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">4.71</td><td align="center">4.77</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-11</td><td align="center">4.92</td><td align="center">4.69</td><td align="center">4.67</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-11</td><td align="center">4.75</td><td align="center">4.92</td><td align="center">5.03</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-11</td><td align="center">4.93</td><td align="center">4.83</td><td align="center">4.91</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-11</td><td align="center">4.80</td><td align="center">4.86</td><td align="center">4.97</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-11</td><td align="center">5.08</td><td align="center">4.40</td><td align="center">4.42</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-11</td><td align="center">4.60</td><td align="center">4.64</td><td align="center">4.61</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-12</td><td align="center">4.69</td><td align="center">4.66</td><td align="center">4.57</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-12</td><td align="center">4.61</td><td align="center">4.63</td><td align="center">4.59</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-12</td><td align="center">4.62</td><td align="center">4.59</td><td align="center">4.48</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-12</td><td align="center">4.66</td><td align="center">4.53</td><td align="center">4.62</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-12</td><td align="center">4.57</td><td align="center">4.66</td><td align="center">4.55</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-12</td><td align="center">4.65</td><td align="center">4.56</td><td align="center">4.37</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-12</td><td align="center">4.50</td><td align="center">4.47</td><td align="center">4.47</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-12</td><td align="center">4.55</td><td align="center">4.87</td><td align="center">4.82</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-12</td><td align="center">4.75</td><td align="center">4.70</td><td align="center">4.75</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-12</td><td align="center">4.74</td><td align="center">4.84</td><td align="center">4.79</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-12</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">5.10</td><td align="center">5.04</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-12</td><td align="center">5.10</td><td align="center">4.97</td><td align="center">4.94</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-13</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">4.94</td><td align="center">4.92</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-13</td><td align="center">5.01</td><td align="center">4.87</td><td align="center">4.98</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-13</td><td align="center">5.03</td><td align="center">4.89</td><td align="center">4.92</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-13</td><td align="center">4.92</td><td align="center">5.03</td><td align="center">4.97</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-13</td><td align="center">5.00</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.18</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-13</td><td align="center">5.27</td><td align="center">4.99</td><td align="center">5.08</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-13</td><td align="center">5.13</td><td align="center">5.33</td><td align="center">5.39</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-13</td><td align="center">5.25</td><td align="center">5.35</td><td align="center">5.48</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-13</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.26</td><td align="center">5.29</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-13</td><td align="center">5.13</td><td align="center">5.08</td><td align="center">5.12</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-13</td><td align="center">5.02</td><td align="center">4.98</td><td align="center">4.90</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-13</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">4.96</td><td align="center">4.87</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-14</td><td align="center">4.70</td><td align="center">4.67</td><td align="center">4.62</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-14</td><td align="center">4.64</td><td align="center">4.60</td><td align="center">4.60</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-14</td><td align="center">4.56</td><td align="center">4.64</td><td align="center">4.59</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-14</td><td align="center">4.67</td><td align="center">4.70</td><td align="center">4.65</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-14</td><td align="center">4.75</td><td align="center">4.81</td><td align="center">4.89</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-14</td><td align="center">4.99</td><td align="center">4.96</td><td align="center">5.04</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-14</td><td align="center">5.00</td><td align="center">5.09</td><td align="center">5.15</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-14</td><td align="center">5.18</td><td align="center">5.12</td><td align="center">5.05</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-14</td><td align="center">5.09</td><td align="center">5.14</td><td align="center">5.17</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-14</td><td align="center">5.15</td><td align="center">5.28</td><td align="center">5.26</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-14</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">4.93</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-14</td><td align="center">5.05</td><td align="center">5.15</td><td align="center">5.04</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-15</td><td align="center">5.00</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">4.82</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-15</td><td align="center">4.94</td><td align="center">4.87</td><td align="center">4.88</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-15</td><td align="center">5.04</td><td align="center">5.18</td><td align="center">5.19</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-15</td><td align="center">5.22</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.04</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-15</td><td align="center">5.25</td><td align="center">5.29</td><td align="center">5.35</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-15</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.45</td><td align="center">5.49</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-15</td><td align="center">5.41</td><td align="center">5.64</td><td align="center">5.59</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-15</td><td align="center">5.50</td><td align="center">5.54</td><td align="center">5.31</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-15</td><td align="center">5.35</td><td align="center">5.56</td><td align="center">5.55</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-15</td><td align="center">5.41</td><td align="center">5.33</td><td align="center">5.36</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-15</td><td align="center">5.32</td><td align="center">4.97</td><td align="center">4.76</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-15</td><td align="center">5.19</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.46</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-16</td><td align="center">5.32</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.47</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-16</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.08</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-16</td><td align="center">5.27</td><td align="center">5.27</td><td align="center">5.33</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-16</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.44</td><td align="center">5.45</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-16</td><td align="center">5.64</td><td align="center">5.55</td><td align="center">5.53</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-16</td><td align="center">5.48</td><td align="center">5.62</td><td align="center">5.57</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-16</td><td align="center">5.52</td><td align="center">5.41</td><td align="center">5.39</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-16</td><td align="center">5.44</td><td align="center">5.49</td><td align="center">5.33</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-16</td><td align="center">5.35</td><td align="center">5.55</td><td align="center">5.47</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-16</td><td align="center">5.44</td><td align="center">5.47</td><td align="center">5.60</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-16</td><td align="center">5.54</td><td align="center">5.60</td><td align="center">5.61</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-16</td><td align="center">5.54</td><td align="center">5.55</td><td align="center">5.49</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-17</td><td align="center">5.55</td><td align="center">5.60</td><td align="center">5.69</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-17</td><td align="center">5.55</td><td align="center">5.41</td><td align="center">5.48</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-17</td><td align="center">5.61</td><td align="center">5.74</td><td align="center">5.71</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-17</td><td align="center">5.67</td><td align="center">5.56</td><td align="center">5.57</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-17</td><td align="center">5.55</td><td align="center">5.65</td><td align="center">5.62</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-17</td><td align="center">5.58</td><td align="center">5.59</td><td align="center">5.52</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-17</td><td align="center">5.57</td><td align="center">5.38</td><td align="center">5.44</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-17</td><td align="center">5.48</td><td align="center">5.39</td><td align="center">5.35</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-17</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.38</td><td align="center">5.39</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-17</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.60</td><td align="center">5.48</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-17</td><td align="center">5.52</td><td align="center">5.77</td><td align="center">5.81</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-17</td><td align="center">5.75</td><td align="center">5.66</td><td align="center">5.57</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-18</td><td align="center">5.65</td><td align="center">5.48</td><td align="center">5.38</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-18</td><td align="center">5.42</td><td align="center">5.44</td><td align="center">5.54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-18</td><td align="center">5.28</td><td align="center">5.51</td><td align="center">5.60</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-18</td><td align="center">5.60</td><td align="center">5.48</td><td align="center">5.46</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-18</td><td align="center">5.56</td><td align="center">5.47</td><td align="center">5.43</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-18</td><td align="center">5.45</td><td align="center">5.35</td><td align="center">5.38</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-18</td><td align="center">5.43</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.34</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-18</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.34</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-18</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.15</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-18</td><td align="center">5.20</td><td align="center">5.31</td><td align="center">5.22</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-18</td><td align="center">5.19</td><td align="center">5.23</td><td align="center">5.32</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-18</td><td align="center">5.24</td><td align="center">4.97</td><td align="center">4.99</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-19</td><td align="center">5.05</td><td align="center">4.92</td><td align="center">4.94</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-19</td><td align="center">5.08</td><td align="center">5.46</td><td align="center">5.51</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-19</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.21</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-19</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.31</td><td align="center">5.19</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-19</td><td align="center">5.29</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.34</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-19</td><td align="center">5.34</td><td align="center">5.25</td><td align="center">5.27</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-19</td><td align="center">5.39</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.42</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-19</td><td align="center">5.38</td><td align="center">5.42</td><td align="center">5.49</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-19</td><td align="center">5.45</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.38</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-19</td><td align="center">5.49</td><td align="center">5.36</td><td align="center">5.46</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-19</td><td align="center">5.45</td><td align="center">5.43</td><td align="center">5.35</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-19</td><td align="center">5.43</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-20</td><td align="center">5.45</td><td align="center">5.42</td><td align="center">5.46</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-20</td><td align="center">5.50</td><td align="center">5.58</td><td align="center">5.77</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-20</td><td align="center">5.30</td><td align="center">5.25</td><td align="center">5.27</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-20</td><td align="center">4.30</td><td align="center">4.17</td><td align="center">4.33</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-20</td><td align="center">4.38</td><td align="center">3.80</td><td align="center">3.91</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-20</td><td align="center">4.86</td><td align="center">4.65</td><td align="center">4.72</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-20</td><td align="center">5.39</td><td align="center">5.85</td><td align="center">5.86</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-20</td><td align="center">6.00</td><td align="center">5.92</td><td align="center">6.00</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-20</td><td align="center">6.25</td><td align="center">6.38</td><td align="center">6.54</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-20</td><td align="center">6.45</td><td align="center">6.63</td><td align="center">6.85</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-20</td><td align="center">6.70</td><td align="center">6.50</td><td align="center">6.69</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-20</td><td align="center">6.55</td><td align="center">6.62</td><td align="center">6.76</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-21</td><td align="center">6.60</td><td align="center">6.48</td><td align="center">6.69</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-21</td><td align="center">6.51</td><td align="center">6.29</td><td align="center">6.22</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-21</td><td align="center">6.17</td><td align="center">6.02</td><td align="center">6.01</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-21</td><td align="center">6.09</td><td align="center">5.96</td><td align="center">5.85</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-21</td><td align="center">5.74</td><td align="center">5.78</td><td align="center">5.80</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-21</td><td align="center">5.90</td><td align="center">5.79</td><td align="center">5.86</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-21</td><td align="center">5.84</td><td align="center">5.86</td><td align="center">5.99</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-21</td><td align="center">5.88</td><td align="center">5.90</td><td align="center">5.88</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-21</td><td align="center">6.06</td><td align="center">6.20</td><td align="center">6.29</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-21</td><td align="center">6.20</td><td align="center">6.34</td><td align="center">6.34</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-21</td><td align="center">6.20</td><td align="center">6.45</td><td align="center">6.46</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-21</td><td align="center">6.45</td><td align="center">6.33</td><td align="center">6.18</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-22</td><td align="center">6.12</td><td align="center">6.36</td><td align="center">6.50</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-22</td><td align="center">6.16</td><td align="center">5.97</td><td align="center">6.02</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-22</td><td align="center">5.80</td><td align="center">5.74</td><td align="center">5.77</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-22</td><td align="center">5.62</td><td align="center">5.57</td><td align="center">5.61</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-22</td><td align="center">5.41</td><td align="center">5.35</td><td align="center">5.41</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-22</td><td align="center">5.40</td><td align="center">5.12</td><td align="center">5.12</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-22</td><td align="center">4.88</td><td align="center">4.90</td><td align="center">4.81</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-22</td><td align="center">4.70</td><td align="center">4.84 </td><td align="center">4.80</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-22</td><td align="center">4.69</td><td align="center">4.82</td><td align="center">4.71</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-22</td><td align="center">4.39</td><td align="center">4.49</td><td align="center">4.43</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-22</td><td align="center">4.20</td><td align="center">4.16</td><td align="center">4.09</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-22</td><td align="center">3.95</td><td align="center">3.96</td><td align="center">4.02</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-23</td><td align="center">4.10</td><td align="center">4.18</td><td align="center">4.00</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-23</td><td align="center">4.18</td><td align="center">4.51</td><td align="center">4.58</td></tr>
<tr><td>Mar-23</td><td align="center">4.50</td><td align="center">4.51</td><td align="center">4.44</td></tr>
<tr><td>Apr-23</td><td align="center">4.30</td><td align="center">4.33</td><td align="center">4.28</td></tr>
<tr><td>May-23</td><td align="center">4.24</td><td align="center">4.25</td><td align="center">4.30</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jun-23</td><td align="center">4.23</td><td align="center">4.26</td><td align="center">4.16</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jul-23</td><td align="center">4.15</td><td align="center">4.06</td><td align="center">4.07</td></tr>
<tr><td>Aug-23</td><td align="center">4.10</td><td align="center">4.07</td><td align="center">4.04</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sep-23</td><td align="center">3.94</td><td align="center">4.00</td><td align="center">3.96</td></tr>
<tr><td>Oct-23</td><td align="center">3.93</td><td align="center">3.94</td><td align="center">3.79</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nov-23</td><td align="center">3.78</td><td align="center">3.87</td><td align="center">3.82</td></tr>
<tr><td>Dec-23</td><td align="center">3.84</td><td align="center">3.84</td><td align="center">3.78</td></tr>
<tr><td>Jan-24</td><td align="center">3.97</td><td align="center">4.02</td><td align="center">4.00</td></tr>
<tr><td>Feb-24</td><td align="center">3.94</td><td align="center">4.40</td><td align="center">4.38</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="4"><sup>1</sup>NAR initially reported before revisions.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</center>
</div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-15909726717722186702024-03-23T14:11:00.001-04:002024-03-23T14:11:00.240-04:00Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in FebruaryAt the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:<br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-f1f">NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February</a><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/single-family-starts-up-35-year-over">Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply<br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-lock-in-effect-of-rising-mortgage">"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"</a> <br />
<br />
• <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/california-february-existing-home">California February Existing Home Sales increase 1.3% YoY, Prices up 9.7% YoY</a><br />
<br />
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-3558566947401774392024-03-23T08:11:00.071-04:002024-03-23T08:11:00.128-04:00Schedule for Week of March 24, 2024The key reports scheduled for this week include February New Home sales, the 3rd estimate of Q4 GDP, February Personal Income & Outlays, and January Case-Shiller house prices.<br />
<br />
For manufacturing, the March Dallas, Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Monday, March 18th -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM ET: <b>Chicago Fed National Activity Index</b> for February. This is a composite index of other data.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRe_ANndxPW9Z8sKA4-o0BRNiqsIrAyzwiNSs2y4CXfAgD47eAcxQWbomL59khGcMn6Rv_6fin9eENUYlpcUMN0fzy_e22as1cq3wLsFKTd9UxrDsW44x1csD9YNN7M88dj81gREwbCIiWi9xfTv9LNU8dWvluzYIS9bYXWjrNF0twkjK_qD-G/s1073/NHSJan2024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="New Home Sales" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRe_ANndxPW9Z8sKA4-o0BRNiqsIrAyzwiNSs2y4CXfAgD47eAcxQWbomL59khGcMn6Rv_6fin9eENUYlpcUMN0fzy_e22as1cq3wLsFKTd9UxrDsW44x1csD9YNN7M88dj81gREwbCIiWi9xfTv9LNU8dWvluzYIS9bYXWjrNF0twkjK_qD-G/s320/NHSJan2024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>10:00 AM: <b>New Home Sales</b> for February from the Census Bureau. <br />
<br />
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.<br />
<br />
The consensus is for 673 thousand SAAR, up from 661 thousand in January.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Tuesday, March 19th -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM: <b>Durable Goods Orders</b> for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in durable goods orders.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW4lkLOvAukTkXt4r7SROUCy_T1CwU2Xn1Gl5diAgAwK73g-K3OQLNp0q8IodGQ9gcMzFqrWTfmH767iFwjv8dWxL2aRrR1olnD3tHKuFn_IsJZhch0c73xjYC1TaVn-7Qkw9NCvTFrxCNLW_X7AsHHbIc4zQnte9wfNfIwpKJFltYO-_15vQL/s1019/CSYoYDec2023.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Case-Shiller House Prices Indices" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW4lkLOvAukTkXt4r7SROUCy_T1CwU2Xn1Gl5diAgAwK73g-K3OQLNp0q8IodGQ9gcMzFqrWTfmH767iFwjv8dWxL2aRrR1olnD3tHKuFn_IsJZhch0c73xjYC1TaVn-7Qkw9NCvTFrxCNLW_X7AsHHbIc4zQnte9wfNfIwpKJFltYO-_15vQL/s320/CSYoYDec2023.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>9:00 AM: <b>S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index</b> for January.<br />
<br />
This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).<br />
<br />
The consensus is for a 5.8% year-over-year increase in the National index for January, up from 5.5% YoY in December.<br />
<br />
9:00 AM: <b>FHFA House Price Index</b> for January 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.<br />
<br />
10:00 AM: <b>Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity</b> for March.<br />
<br />
10:30 AM: <b>Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity</b> for March.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Wednesday, March 20th -----</b></center>
<br />
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the <b>mortgage purchase applications index</b>.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Thursday, March 21st -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM, <b>Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2023 (Third Estimate)</b>, GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the second estimate.<br />
<br />
8:30 AM: The <b>initial weekly unemployment claims</b> report will be released. The consensus is for 208 thousand initial claims, down from 210 thousand last week.<br />
<br />
9:45 AM: <b>Chicago Purchasing Managers Index</b> for March. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, down from 44.0 in February.<br />
<br />
10:00 AM: <b>Pending Home Sales Index</b> for February. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in the index.<br />
<br />
10:00 AM: <b>University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index</b> (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 76.5.<br />
<br />
11:00 AM: the <b>Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey</b> for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.<br />
<br />
<center>
<b>----- Friday, March 22nd -----</b></center>
<br />
8:30 AM: <b>Personal Income and Outlays</b> for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.8% YoY.<br />
<br />
11:30 AM: <b>Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell</b>, Moderated Discussion with Kai Ryssdal, At the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference, San Francisco, CalifCalculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-34048412407208760242024-03-22T19:46:00.028-04:002024-03-22T19:46:00.140-04:00March 22nd COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj13aiqz5fkzF6tYr14UYJ_P19qkbPTIE1QEv7zzK3_rTvDfAqYPQz8COCCLgSYve8Z4F0jcIok6IjD6QG7yIRkXNl4CP0sOnXGEyA02p_jfiY8jGZuKJEPmvrOvVzcVkU8h4s20qUknp3nULQytRGbc9wmxaE6EvdmLjlKWBBxx3ku32ZCW6TR/s397/RatesMar222024.PNG"><img alt="Mortgage Rates" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj13aiqz5fkzF6tYr14UYJ_P19qkbPTIE1QEv7zzK3_rTvDfAqYPQz8COCCLgSYve8Z4F0jcIok6IjD6QG7yIRkXNl4CP0sOnXGEyA02p_jfiY8jGZuKJEPmvrOvVzcVkU8h4s20qUknp3nULQytRGbc9wmxaE6EvdmLjlKWBBxx3ku32ZCW6TR/s320/RatesMar222024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Note: Mortgage rates are from <a href="https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/">MortgageNewsDaily.com</a> and are for top tier scenarios.<br />
<br />
<div>Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.</div><div><br /></div><div>For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.</div><div><br /></div><div>Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,025 earlier this year but are still close to double the low of 5,380 last year.</div><div><br /></div>
<center>
<table align="center" border="2" cellpadding="4" style="width: 480px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">COVID Metrics</th></tr>
<tr><th> </th><th>Now</th><th>Week<br />Ago</th><th>Goal</th></tr>
<tr><td>Hospitalized<sup>2</sup></td><td align="center">10,163</td><td align="center">12,438</td><td align="center">≤3,000<sup>1</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td>Deaths per Week<sup>2</sup></td><td align="center">1,190</td><td align="center">1,318</td><td align="center">≤350<sup>1</sup></td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="4"><sup>1</sup>my goals to stop weekly posts,<br /><sup>2</sup>Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths<br />🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths
<br />✅ Goal met.</td></tr>
</tbody></table></center><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVJ0ZN9QN-lkurZOR-D3YJcv_9Oqj4R2xRlhTZfC-ufG1kw5E3JsNMb5Z35d1fvsIuCydLcvrHOB0es7Wu0luwVa7DM4idoWkrjR_1ntkYnwVCwN3i4H-Vvwou6aJ4GbEOFA8-pMNkoMhavKrbiLGtXP1yz8vL9DL3-7TJC81uMIpyBrRt71nd/s1256/COVIDMar222024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="COVID-19 Deaths per Week" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVJ0ZN9QN-lkurZOR-D3YJcv_9Oqj4R2xRlhTZfC-ufG1kw5E3JsNMb5Z35d1fvsIuCydLcvrHOB0es7Wu0luwVa7DM4idoWkrjR_1ntkYnwVCwN3i4H-Vvwou6aJ4GbEOFA8-pMNkoMhavKrbiLGtXP1yz8vL9DL3-7TJC81uMIpyBrRt71nd/s320/COVIDMar222024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.<div><br /></div><div><div>Weekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,528 but are still more than double the low of 490 last July.</div></div><div><br /></div>And here is a graph I'm following on <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nwss/rv/COVID19-nationaltrend.html">COVID in wastewater</a> as of March 14th:<br />
<br />
<span style="border-image: initial; border-width: 1px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZpiPdoRpdzhlrySrZ64FBIpseSwf14z4XMB-ZwXNDPaWqxP14RxdRLkjxW28yWRBXA1Ewwdv1YFgSyVSRLok1diDNjlWzFFLD6EPszWayr-UK_HEhOSsteAK2rZKulKBpH_yZs2HfWL837mXtNqiTolRld7M_z2yXnIG3sP-Sx6tqTSUJWP9n/s983/COVIDWasteMar222024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="COVID-19 Wastewater" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZpiPdoRpdzhlrySrZ64FBIpseSwf14z4XMB-ZwXNDPaWqxP14RxdRLkjxW28yWRBXA1Ewwdv1YFgSyVSRLok1diDNjlWzFFLD6EPszWayr-UK_HEhOSsteAK2rZKulKBpH_yZs2HfWL837mXtNqiTolRld7M_z2yXnIG3sP-Sx6tqTSUJWP9n/s320/COVIDWasteMar222024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a></span>This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.<div><br /></div><div>Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 80% from the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline.</div> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-7295567981549712812024-03-22T12:06:00.001-04:002024-03-22T12:06:21.684-04:00ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in FebruaryFrom ICE (formerly Black Knight): <a href="https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports/first-look-at-february-2024-mortgage-data">ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Improve and Foreclosures Drop as Prepayments Rise Modestly</a><br />
<blockquote>• T<b>he national delinquency rate eased to 3.34% in February</b>, down 4 basis points (bps) from the month before and 11 bps lower than in February 2023<br />
<br />
• While the number of borrowers one payment behind rose modestly by 10K, those 60 days late as well as those 90 or more days past due both fell to their lowest levels in three months<br />
<br />
• Delinquency inflows rose 6.5% from January’s eight-month low, while rolls to later stages continued their recent improvement<br />
<br />
• Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) are down 103K (-18%) year over year, with the population now standing at 459K<br />
<br />
• Representing 5.3% of serious delinquencies, February’s 25K foreclosure starts is the second lowest in the last twelve months<br />
<br />
• <b>The number of loans in active foreclosure fell -7K to 211K, remaining 25% (-72K) below pre-pandemic levels</b><br />
<br />
• 6K foreclosure sales were completed nationally in February, a 9% decrease from the previous month and the second lowest level in the trailing 12-month period<br />
<br />
• Prepayment activity rose 3 bps in February to a level not seen since October, as a brief dip in rates heading into the month provided a modest increase in refinance incentive<br />
<i>emphasis added</i></blockquote>Note: that last column below is for <b>the same month in 2019</b> to show the change from pre-pandemic levels.<br />
<br /><table border="2" cellpadding="2" style="width: 540px;"><tbody>
<tr><th colspan="5">ICE: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process</th></tr>
<tr><th> </th><th>Feb<br />
2024</th><th>Jan<br />
2024</th><th>Feb<br />
2023</th><th>Feb<br />
2019</th></tr>
<tr><td>Delinquent</td><td align="center">3.34%</td><td align="center">3.38%</td><td align="center">3.45%</td><td align="center">3.89%</td></tr>
<tr><td>In Foreclosure</td><td align="center">0.40%</td><td align="center">0.41%</td><td align="center">0.46%</td><td align="center">0.51%</td></tr>
<tr><td colspan="5">Number of properties:</td></tr>
<tr><td>Number of properties<br />that are delinquent,<br />but not in foreclosure:</td><td align="center">1,782,000</td><td align="center">1,803,000</td><td align="center">1,811,000</td><td align="center">2,019,000</td></tr>
<tr><td>Number of properties<br />in foreclosure<br />pre-sale inventory:</td><td align="center">211,000</td><td align="center">219,000</td><td align="center">240,000</td><td align="center">264,000</td></tr>
<tr><td>Total Properties</td><td align="center">1,993,000</td><td align="center">2,022,000</td><td align="center">2,050,000</td><td align="center">2,284,000</td></tr>
</tbody></table>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-91437726490574365122024-03-22T10:18:00.001-04:002024-03-22T10:18:00.130-04:00Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%From BofA: <blockquote>Since our update last week, <b>1Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar</b>. 4Q tracking remained at 3.5% q/q saar. [Mar 22nd estimate]<br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>From Goldman: <blockquote>We boosted our <b>Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.9% (qoq ar)</b>. Our Q1 domestic final sales growth forecast now stands at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Mar 21st estimate]</blockquote>And from the Altanta Fed: <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1">GDPNow</a><blockquote>The GDPNow model estimate for <b>real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent</b> on March 19, down from 2.3 percent from March 14. [March 19th estimate]</blockquote>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-41533179651360728752024-03-22T08:21:00.020-04:002024-03-22T08:21:00.143-04:00Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year<div>From STR: <a href="https://str.com/press-release/us-hotel-results-week-ending-16-march">U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 March</a></div>
<blockquote>U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week but <b>showed continued declines year over year</b>, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 March.<br />
<br />
10-16 March 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):<br />
<br />
• <b>Occupancy: 66.5% (-1.4%)</b><br />
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.21 (-2.1%)<br />
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.51 (-3.5%)<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">emphasis added</span></blockquote>The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the <b>four-week average</b>.<div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim_sTGLriMz2hn4XarnI33iGUiEYBK3XynFN5s4Dk0kgVR1I3wf29RF_SMoVdohB-O5QNW8jfJC_UdIecX5YMMXgZta1PCM6NP3yoKfHFMREIbwn7ZuUa7SJOSsiwJrmhbFQDrtXs-RhB2IShlTupbTJLzK3iyIof5O4iojr2UnJaUV4OaH4_Y/s1033/HotelMar212024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Hotel Occupancy Rate" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim_sTGLriMz2hn4XarnI33iGUiEYBK3XynFN5s4Dk0kgVR1I3wf29RF_SMoVdohB-O5QNW8jfJC_UdIecX5YMMXgZta1PCM6NP3yoKfHFMREIbwn7ZuUa7SJOSsiwJrmhbFQDrtXs-RhB2IShlTupbTJLzK3iyIof5O4iojr2UnJaUV4OaH4_Y/s320/HotelMar212024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a><i><b><span style="font-size: 85%;">Click on graph for larger image.</span></b></i><br />
<br />
The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. <div><br /></div><div>The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking slightly below last year, and below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).<br /><div><br /></div><div>Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.</div><div><br /></div><div>The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.</div></div></div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-77906074758024656592024-03-21T14:51:00.005-04:002024-03-21T14:51:57.278-04:00Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 23.8% YoY; New Listings up 17.8% YoY<b>What this means:</b> On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/february-2024-data/">reported</a> inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. <div><br /></div><div> Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 23.8% YoY.<br />
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<a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">Realtor.com</a> has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-mar-16-2024/">Weekly Housing Trends View—Data Week Ending March 16, 2024</a><blockquote>• <b>Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 23.8% above year-ago levels.</b> For a 19th straight week, active listings registered above the prior year’s level, which means that today’s home shoppers can consider more options for existing homes for sale. However, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared with what was typical in 2017 to 2019, and the gain in inventory, particularly in the more affordable under-$350,000 price category, was primarily focused in the South last month. Nonetheless, in the first few weeks of March, inventory growth has also accelerated in the Midwest and West, while inventory in the Northeast remains similar to the previous year’s. <br />
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• <b>New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 17.8% from one year ago.</b> For the 21st consecutive week, newly listed homes have surpassed year-ago levels. This rate of growth is also increasing, with newly listed homes growing 17.8% compared with last year, while the previous week’s growth rate was 15.8%. This is the highest year-over-year growth rate in new listings seen since May 2021, but the base of inventory for this growth remains small.</blockquote><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8ZaMcgESkDOxp8501MZFZOhCnJzTGLkKqHMBHBnVFkKwMIwVdD6e0KlrMUDv5jF0wNQ8YsqQM9DZ2FA2TGLcE67sKOF_NWblWgpsWAfC7Z0Quc6aGyV4LHm1umD8JYHvyODkQFxiP8z2l_7qe61YXLXrsZhnY0CPmo3M-eg0k6tEPoUhKQ7eK/s1015/RealtorMar212024.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Realtor YoY Active Listings" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8ZaMcgESkDOxp8501MZFZOhCnJzTGLkKqHMBHBnVFkKwMIwVdD6e0KlrMUDv5jF0wNQ8YsqQM9DZ2FA2TGLcE67sKOF_NWblWgpsWAfC7Z0Quc6aGyV4LHm1umD8JYHvyODkQFxiP8z2l_7qe61YXLXrsZhnY0CPmo3M-eg0k6tEPoUhKQ7eK/s320/RealtorMar212024.PNG" style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to <a href="https://www.realtor.com/research/data/">realtor.com</a>. <br />
<br />Inventory was up year-over-year for the 19th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. <div><br /></div><div>Inventory is still historically very low.</div><div><br /></div><div>Although new listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels, new listings are now up YoY for the 21st consecutive week.</div> </div>Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-28204600433764310282024-03-21T12:57:00.002-04:002024-03-21T12:57:19.284-04:00BofA "Should policy be set on OER if nobody pays it?"A brief excerpt from a BofA research note.<br />
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BofA economists ask: Should policy be set on OER if nobody pays
it? <blockquote>One main factor behind sticky services inflation in the US has been the behavior of
owners’ equivalent rent (OER), which measures the change in the cost of owner occupied housing. ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates OER by using actual rents as a proxy. Rents, which initially plunged during the pandemic, rebounded sharply for several reasons. These include a shift in demand from urban to rural locations where inventory was scarce, an increased desire to live alone, and a need for increased space to accommodate work-from-home arrangements.<br />
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That being said, we ask the following provocative question: should monetary policy be based on a price that two out of three households are not paying. ... The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HIPC) [that] was created to mimic how inflation is estimated in Europe, which excludes OER from its price index due to disagreement over how to estimate owner-occupied housing costs. While headline CPI inflation was up 3.2% y/y through February and headline PCE inflation was up 2.4% through January (February data has not been released yet), where was HICP inflation? <b>HICP inflation was up only 2.2%.</b></blockquote><blockquote>
<br />
Where would the Fed’s confidence to cut be if it saw inflation at 2.2%? We think most
certainly higher.</blockquote>I've written extensively about the <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/remote-work-and-household-formation">surge in household formation</a> during the pandemic (mostly due to work from home), how and why <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-rents-mostly-unchanged-year-560">asking rents are mostly flat</a> year-over-year, and why I think OER should mostly be ignored right now by the Fed (monetary policy cannot impact the past).<br />
<br />
With the <a href="https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/cleveland-fed-median-cpi-increased-04.html">February CPI report</a>, I noted: "Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around 1.8% year-over-year."
Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in February, unchanged from 2.2% in January.Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10004977.post-17259722374269321692024-03-21T10:40:00.001-04:002024-03-21T10:40:43.058-04:00NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February; Median Prices Down 7.1 From Peak (NSA)Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: <a href="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existing-home-sales-increased-f1f">NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February</a><br />
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Excerpt: <blockquote><b>Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)</b><br />
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The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDL1cHd5Qmy42knfbsQY7j4PBYV8wRIgq45HIqPDoUBaNOIY-L6BUQvLbPMQX6IGFXuIXeKZP1IJ_3fwDLJLOZN5mhAEDxfHuh4nlaVuF77RKMXmhOji90RrqpVGqTw_cit_JAbVZduRwhf_U4MAPh6hA4iMmpzX_O_mV7uUzEIA07BqfcpQsB/s941/EHS20232024Feb.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Existing Home Sales Year-over-year" border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDL1cHd5Qmy42knfbsQY7j4PBYV8wRIgq45HIqPDoUBaNOIY-L6BUQvLbPMQX6IGFXuIXeKZP1IJ_3fwDLJLOZN5mhAEDxfHuh4nlaVuF77RKMXmhOji90RrqpVGqTw_cit_JAbVZduRwhf_U4MAPh6hA4iMmpzX_O_mV7uUzEIA07BqfcpQsB/s320/EHS20232024Feb.PNG" style="border-image: none; border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0); float: right; margin: 10px;" /></a>Sales declined 3.3% year-over-year compared to February 2023. This was the thirtieth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Be careful with February sales - the seasonal factor plays a role in boosting sales.</blockquote>There is much more in the article.<br />
<br /><center><iframe frameborder="0" height="320" scrolling="no" src="https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/embed" style="background: white; border: 1px solid #EEE;" width="480"></iframe></center> Calculated Riskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08664541332908374389noreply@blogger.com0