by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

• August ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Continue to Cool

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the "Economic Outlook" at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

----- Monday, August 18th -----
10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 34, up from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, August 19th -----
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

The consensus is for 1.300 million SAAR, down from 1.321 million SAAR in June.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2025

----- Wednesday, August 20th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 29-30

----- Thursday, August 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR for July.

----- Friday, August 22nd -----
10:00 AM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook and Framework Review, At the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.92 million in July, down 0.3% from June’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.1% from a year earlier. By broad region, the YOY % increase in median sales prices in the Northeast and Midwest should be a bit over 5%, while median sales prices in both the South and the West should be little changed from a year ago.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in July 2024 at 3.98 million SAAR.

There is also an update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key stories for existing homes are that inventory has increased sharply while sales are essentially flat compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure. And there are significant regional differences too.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in May and will likely be lower year-over-year in the June report compared to May (based on other data).
...
In the January report, the Case-Shiller National index was up 4.2%, in February up 3.9%, in March up 3.4%, in April report up 2.7%, and in May up 2.3%.

And the May Case-Shiller index was a 3-month average of closing prices in March, April and May. March closing prices include some contracts signed in January.

So, not only is this trending down, but there is a significant lag to this data.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. At 104.0 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in July was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved down to 77.5 percent in July, a rate that is 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.5% is 2.1% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was slightly below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased to 104.0. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was slightly above consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent from July 2024. ... The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.5% in July.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.4% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in July were at expectations and the previous two months were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:45:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 5.5.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.6%.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August)

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 06:21:00 PM

From First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming Housing Market Returning to Reality as National Price Growth Cools Further in July, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report

Highlights

• Annual house price appreciation is at the slowest rate since March 2012.

• House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for May 2025 to June 2025 was revised down by 0.1 percentage points, from -0.1 percent to -0.2 percent.

“It’s back to reality for national house price appreciation, as limited affordability, economic uncertainty and homeowners unwilling to enter the market and give up their low mortgage rates hinder demand amid a growing inventory of listings,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “This supply-demand dynamic slowed annual home price growth nationally for the eighth straight month in July. National prices are now just 0.3 percent from their recent peak in May. A window has opened for incomes to outpace price growth and affordability to improve, a positive for buyers looking for an opportunity. Overall, it’s a reflection of a steadily cooling housing market, following the white-hot pandemic-era market fueled by record-low mortgage rates.”

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 03:15:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 9 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 9 August. ...

3-9 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.0% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.61 (-0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.47 (-1.6%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally into the Fall.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 12:26:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Second Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year from 0.43 percent in Q2 2024 to 0.48 percent in Q2 2025 (red) but remains historically low.

There is much more in the article.